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Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Fantasy & Reality


Fantasy: The Bears' offense will get smashed by the Cowboys. I don't know if a coach can win a comeback award, but Mike Martz has done a real good job in Chicago. What else can you say after Jay Cutler threw three touchdowns at Dallas and wasn't sacked once after the team's first series? The Bears adjusted their offensive line after an injury to left tackle Chris Williams and had everyone from the big guys up front to Greg Olsen and Matt Forte make incredible blocks (Forte took on defensive tackle Igor Olshansky on one play!) to help Cutler throw. Cutler also threw more short routes than expected. Really, the Dallas defense was shaken after giving up the touchdown to Greg Olsen and wasn't the same after that. This offense is for real; only Martz or mistakes by the players are going to slow them down.

Reality: Larry Fitzgerald isn't going to have a big year. Derek Anderson isn't the answer in Arizona; he's off target too often and has gotten beat up because he's holding the ball too long (stop me if you've heard that one before, Cleveland). Behind him on the depth chart are Max Hall and John Skelton, both rookies. Kurt Warner's dancing, Marc Bulger's peeking over Joe Flacco's shoulder and about the only decent names out there on the street are Josh McCown and Daunte Culpepper (you're excused if you just vomited a little). Fitzgerald's a great receiver, and he's getting close to playing at 100 percent, but his quarterback will be the reason for his tepid stats this year. Oh, and Nnamdi Asomugha is coming to Glendale to check him out for 60 plays this Sunday.

Fantasy: The Broncos won't be able to pass without Brandon Marshall. Demaryius Thomas passed the eyeball test on Sunday, and as long as his foot doesn't fracture again, he's going to me a great addition. In college he played on a team that ran, ran, ran, ran and then threw deep to him. In the pros he's on a team that will run, then dink, then run, then dunk, then run and then throw deep to him. The Broncos are lulling defenses to sleep and then hitting them in the head Tom-and-Jerry style with a croquet mallet. Thomas should be at the top of your waiver wire moves this week, and he might wind up being better for the Broncos on and off the field than Marshall was -- and that's saying something.

Reality: The Panthers are in big trouble. When DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart can't put up huge numbers against a defense they've routinely steamrolled, red flags should go up. The biggest problem the Panthers have is that they're easy to prepare for: Stack the box to slow down the run, tilt a safety toward Steve Smith and go to town. With Jimmy Clausen taking over this week, I don't see how things will change. Taking on the Bengals in Week 3 won't help things.

Fantasy: Vince Young will be a good Fantasy option in Week 2. For the second time in three home games dating back to last season, Young was completely baffled by an aggressive 3-4 defense and threw two interceptions and fumbled the ball away (the other time being a playoff-run killing loss to the Chargers. The theory behind my pick for him to put up good numbers was correct, but the execution was flawed. He attempted 25 passes in three quarters, which for him is a lot -- proof that the Titans knew they were going to have to throw the ball.

Fantasy: Jerome Harrison will be a good Fantasy option in Week 2. See above. Harrison had twice as many carries as Peyton Hillis but ran like Betty White in a pickup game -- the real Betty White, not the guy who's so hungry he's playing like Betty White. Theory good, execution bad. Josh Cribbs is the future of the Browns' offense by the way.

Reality: Mark Clayton will do better than Randy Moss. Another brilliant call of mine from Week 2, though I'm disappointed in how Clayton got his numbers: Two catches, 12 yards, two touchdowns. So many times I have called a guy a bust and he pulls off a small amount of catches for maximum Fantasy value. I can't take credit for this one.

Parting shots
• Waiver-wire DSTs for Week 3: Cincinnati (at Carolina), Miami (vs. N.Y. Jets), San Diego (at Seattle), Washington (at St. Louis).

• Want to get a quarterback cheap via trade? Tony Romo has nothing but sour owners yet he's second in the league in passing, had both of his two interceptions come off tipped passes and had a third touchdown called off in Week 1 because of a holding penalty on his now-benched offensive lineman. He's going to get better. If there's a guy in your league with Romo and Charles, you should buy him or her lunch, then talk deal.

• This shouldn't come as a complete shocker, but after watching Michael Turner run against the Cardinals, I can safely say that there are offensive linemen with better acceleration. I was originally tipped off to this by our good friend Pete Prisco, and after watching him in Week 2, I was disappointed in how long it took him to turn a corner, or try and get into the second level of the defense. Maybe he hurt his groin earlier in the game and tried to play through it, and that's why he looked slow. Regardless, I'm not calling him "The Burner" again until he actually burns ... figuratively.

• Awesome road game, Mike Sims-Walker. Way to make up for your disappearing act in Week 1. Too bad nearly 60 percent of your Fantasy owners benched you. By the way, 38 of Sims-Walker's 105 yards and his touchdown came in the fourth quarter when the game was out of reach. But that's something to keep in mind since the Jaguars are probably going to be way behind in several games this year.

• The difference between the Texans win over Indy and the Giants loss to Indy? O-line play. The Texans have a tremendous offensive line that contained the Colts' smallish front and led the way for Arian Foster. The Giants couldn't do the same. I like Knowshon Moreno's chances in Week 3.

• I'm buying it: Darren McFadden. The guy is playing great ball and is a part of the not-so-stiff AFC West. He's made it hard for the Raiders' coaching staff to give Michael Bush a big role when his thumb heals.

• I'm holding on it: Joe Flacco. Originally I was going to write a lot on him and the Ravens and what Fantasy owners should do. They should hold him on their rosters. I expect him to run a simple game plan that won't put him much at risk against the Browns, which is too bad since he should throttle them for two or three touchdowns and 250 yards in a perfect world. The Ravens are going to have to go back to basics and run the ball more, no matter what John Harbaugh barks at Gregg Doyel.

• I started picking football games at home with my family, which includes my wife, my six-year-old son and my two-year-old daughter. I'm winning our pool, but not by much. Let me say this: My daughter, who is more familiar with Zooboomafoo and Abby Cadabby than Peyton Manning and Adrian Peterson, is on my heels. My little girl knows more than ... hey, that sounds like the start of some of the e-mails I get from you guys.

• Jahvid Best. Stud. But if you own him and expect him to score oodles of Fantasy points each week, go visit the guy who owns Arian Foster.

• A very slim minority of Drew Brees' Fantasy owners are worried about his production through two games. Keep in mind, the Saints have taken on two of the better defenses in the league in nationally televised games. He'll have a third when the Falcons march into New Orleans on Sunday. I promise, he's going to have some massive outings soon enough. Hey, you could always trade him if you're not happy -- I'm sure the folks in your league wouldn't mind that.

Last and certainly not least
• The world lost wide receiver Kenny McKinley this week. While he didn't register high on the Fantasy scale, he was a potential asset to the Broncos based primarily on his speed. He left South Carolina as the team's single-season receptions leader (77 in 2007) and averaged 13.4 yards per catch over his college career. While he wasn't expected to hold a major role for the Broncos in 2010, we did project him to be a mild contributor as a deep-ball receiver until he was put on IR in early August. So there was potential for him to help and be a factor in Fantasy leagues. Our hearts are broken for the Broncos' team and fans, who have dealt with so many awful incidents over the last several years, as well as fans of his in South Carolina

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